Số lượng bond đáo hạn đạt kỷ lục trong 2012

According to our statistics, total volume of government bond coming to maturity will reach a peak during the period of 2010-2013, with the highest level estimated for 2012. Total volume of corporate bond coming to maturity will experience highest increase in 2011 and 2012


Implication

In spite of a strong rise in the volume of government bonds coming into maturity, new is suance of government

bond also esc alates s ignificantly in 2010: 97,000bn VND YTD against 41,000bn of bonds coming to maturity in

2010. This is also 9 times higher than the volume of newly-issued government bond in 2009.

Most of newly-issued government bonds in 2010 were carried out in May and June when interest rate stayed at

lower level than last months of the year. After such large volume of new issuance, Ministry of Finance seems to

have no further demand for bond issuance, especially at high interest rate level currently: While interest rate

continues to keep at high level, ceiling rate of Governmental bonds has decreased recently (lower than the

market transaction rate).

Short-term impact: Those bank s that bought large amount of government bonds in May and June have later on

used those bonds to repo on the OMO. However as the amount of cash pumped out through OMO is limited

and based on bidding mechanism, this may drain those banks liquidity at certain point of time.

Long-term impact: According to the above figures, owing to the large issuance of bonds at relatively low interest

rate in 2010,

the Ministry of Finance may not be under the pressure of new bond issuance, especially in

1H2011. According to the current plan passed by the National Assembly, the Government will issue 45,000bn

VND worth of bonds in 2011. Hence, we think that the possibility of competition between government bond and

funding to private sector is limited and government bonds are expected not to absorb too much capital of banks

in 2011.

However, the

amount of corporate bonds coming to maturity will also increase strongly in 2011 and

2012

. This will be an alert for those companies with weak cash flow and bus iness as they will need capital to

pay back the bond and continue to compete in capital mobilization in the two coming years.